In an industry where every dollar and shift counts, accurate sales forecasting is more important than ever. It affects everything from labor scheduling to ingredient purchasing to broader demand planning. Yet despite being a top operational priority, most restaurant operators are still struggling to get it right.
According to the 2025 Restaurant Growth Insights Report, operators report that their sales forecasts are, on average, only 60% accurate. This is a surprising figure, especially considering that 72% are using some form of tech-based forecasting tool. Even more telling, 70% of operators say they feel confident in their ability to forecast sales for key operational needs, while relying on data that is 40% off, on average.
The numbers tell a different story. There is a clear disconnect between the confidence operators have in their forecasting tools and the actual performance those tools deliver.
Tech Is in Place, but Performance Is Not
So, where is the breakdown happening? The data suggests two possibilities. Either the tools are not being used to their full potential, or external conditions are shifting too quickly for static models to keep up. In either case, the result is the same: Forecasts fall short, leading to staffing mismatches, over-ordering or under-ordering inventory, and ultimately, missed revenue targets.
This gap between perceived readiness and actual accuracy creates operational friction. A forecast that is only 60% accurate leaves far too much room for error in labor allocation and purchasing decisions. Over time, those missteps add up and impact margins.
Bridging the gap between forecast confidence and forecast accuracy is not just about upgrading software. It is about investing in better processes, cleaner data inputs, and team adoption. Without these components, even the most advanced platforms will continue to underdeliver. Based on our experience with our customers, restaurants should be aiming for at least 80% accuracy. We’ve even seen many achieve as much as 90-95%. So, compared to the accuracy our customers achieve, 60% was surprisingly low. Inaccurate forecasts (off by 40%) will negatively impact growth and profitability.
Want to understand the full picture of how forecasting, labor, and technology trends are shaping restaurant operations this year? Download the complete report for detailed insights and strategies that can help you grow smarter.