How to Translate Restaurant Sales Forecasts into Better Prep, Ordering, and Labor Planning

Accurate forecasting is core to operational efficiency. It serves as the backbone of several operational workflows. When you start with a sound forecast, it impacts:

• Inventory Management: Order the right quantities - no more, no less.
• Labor Scheduling: Match staffing to expected traffic by the hour or daypart.
• Prep and Production: Prep what you need, when you need it, to reduce waste and avoid stockouts.

Whether you manage a single unit or lead a multi-store organization, accurate forecasting supports better planning across all these areas.

At Crunchtime’s 2024 Ops Summit, restaurant leaders came together to explore how forecasting and operational tools can streamline decision-making and drive efficiency. This blog distills those takeaways into a practical guide to help you understand the potential of harnessing Crunchtime’s forecasting tools for stronger cost control and smarter operations.

Suggested Ordering: Avoid Over- or Under-Ordering

The suggested order tool in Crunchtime Inventory Management uses a clear formula to help managers:

[Need – Have] = Suggested Order

• Need is calculated using a combination of forecasted sales, par levels, and historical consumption.
• Have includes current on-hand inventory and pending orders.

This helps reduce over-ordering, out-of-stocks, and guesswork. Factors like upcoming promotions, holidays, and weather events can be layered in for more location-specific accuracy.

Smarter Labor Scheduling Backed by Forecasted Sales

Labor is a major controllable cost. Crunchtime’s Labor & Scheduling tools integrate directly with forecasted sales data to help teams:

• Staff appropriately for high-traffic periods like weekend lunch or dinner rushes
• Reduce overstaffing during slower dayparts
• Build schedules that comply with labor laws, employee availability, and business rules

With 15- or 30-minute scheduling increments and visibility into dine-in versus takeout trends, teams can better align labor to shifting demand patterns.

Forecast-Driven Production Planning

The suggested production feature uses forecasted sales to help operators determine:

• How much to prep for each daypart (breakfast, lunch, dinner)
• Appropriate batch sizes based on demand and shelf life

This enables a balance between freshness and efficiency, especially useful in high-volume environments.

Leveraging Dayparts and Revenue Centers

Crunchtime allows sales forecasting to be segmented by dayparts and revenue centers (like dine-in, delivery, or bar). This allows for more nuanced planning. For example, if dine-in sales peak at lunch and delivery picks up at dinner, labor and prep plans can shift accordingly. This flexibility supports better alignment of resources with actual consumer behavior across business channels.

Auto-Forecasting and Auto-Scheduling

Crunchtime supports automation across both forecasting and scheduling:

• Auto-forecasting pulls from historical data and upcoming events to create projected sales without manual entry.
• Auto-scheduling uses those forecasts to build labor schedules based on predefined rules, reducing manual workload.

While human oversight is still essential, automation enables quicker adjustments and consistency across locations.

AI Forecasting: Smarter Predictions Through Machine Learning

Crunchtime's AI forecasting tool provides more accurate sales forecasts by analyzing:

• At least 60 days of historical data (180+ days ideal)
• Patterns in traffic, weather, promotions, and anomalies

AI forecasting is most impactful when applied consistently across inventory, prep, and labor planning. Accuracy improvements vary by location, with some operators reporting up to 27% better forecast precision compared to manual methods.

Real-Time Dashboards to Track and Adjust

Once forecasts are in motion, visibility is key. Crunchtime’s dashboards let managers monitor metrics like:

• Sales vs. forecast
• Labor cost %
• Food cost %
• Sales per labor hour (SPLH)

Operators can adjust prep or staffing in real time, and regional managers can monitor multiple locations from a central dashboard.

Add Context with Weather Integration

Crunchtime’s weather widget helps contextualize sales trends. For example, if a sunny Saturday last year drove higher sales, and this year’s forecast calls for rain, that insight helps temper prep or labor plans. Weather data can also be reviewed alongside historical sales for more nuanced forecasting.

Projected Sales %: Fine-Tune Forecasts On Demand

Operators can manually scale forecasts up or down based on upcoming conditions using the projected sales % tool:

• Expecting lower traffic due to road closures? Scale down forecasts by 10%
• Running a limited-time offer? Increase projected sales for the duration of the promo

These adjustments can be made by day, daypart, or revenue center, giving managers control where it matters most.

Consumption Forecasting: Sales vs. Usage

Crunchtime also allows users to forecast consumption using different drivers:

• Sales-based consumption: Based on historical sales volumes
• Usage-based Consumption: Based on how much of a product was actually used

This is helpful for organizations wanting to track the difference between what's sold and what's prepped or wasted, especially in prep-heavy operations.

Set It and Forget It: Auto-Generate Forecasts in Advance

With auto-generated sales forecasts, teams can schedule Crunchtime to create forecasts several days in advance (e.g., seven days before the upcoming week). This allows planners to work ahead without re-entering data manually.

The Bottom Line: Smarter Forecasting Drives Cost Savings

When implemented effectively, Crunchtime’s forecasting tools can lead to:

• Labor cost control through tighter, data-driven scheduling
• Inventory optimization that reduces waste and out-of-stocks
• Improved execution through better visibility and fewer manual processes

While results vary by organization, these tools give operators a consistent foundation for better planning and execution. The primary goal is to equip you with the knowledge and tools necessary to create accurate, data-driven sales forecasts to help you optimize inventory, labor, and overall operational efficiency. Click here to learn more about forecasting.